Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 16.635880 19.392032 22.414407 25.968124 30.025340 34.505889 39.821498
2024-10-13 12.556332 16.426928 21.119128 27.192868 34.809984 44.006574 55.906805
2024-10-20 9.473841 13.607794 19.038239 26.620016 36.844544 50.055205 68.297951
2024-10-27 7.205976 11.224133 16.879603 25.298423 37.361918 53.844579 77.843856
2024-11-03 6.410258 10.674950 17.026050 26.983493 41.960525 63.348315 95.808402
2024-11-10 5.912715 10.445689 17.539257 29.173370 47.417930 74.472395 116.999906
2024-11-17 5.105355 9.561249 16.881503 29.425001 49.902618 81.381977 132.541815
2024-11-24 4.330761 8.583693 15.906144 28.990530 51.181687 86.471729 145.640514
2024-12-01 3.629911 7.605763 14.771222 28.104058 51.558126 90.078827 156.595353
2024-12-08 3.167250 6.986627 14.165523 28.026006 53.228479 95.838716 171.381333
2024-12-15 2.812008 6.513455 13.752191 28.220372 55.350234 102.465778 188.045078
2024-12-22 2.302387 5.629710 12.427460 26.538337 53.897636 102.806763 193.986196
2024-12-29 2.092937 5.379181 12.366922 27.379535 57.378152 112.414994 217.427828
2025-01-05 1.949859 5.259264 12.572329 28.808662 62.194761 124.965389 247.376568
2025-01-12 1.663636 4.742722 11.851939 28.233638 63.020285 130.239509 264.546624
2025-01-19 1.367661 4.134188 10.822971 26.844957 62.019776 131.929962 275.126322
2025-01-26 1.312338 4.140299 11.210033 28.624055 67.777305 147.170494 312.679572
2025-02-02 1.288285 4.226883 11.800529 30.934114 74.888786 165.637787 357.825861
2025-02-09 1.156803 3.980777 11.532249 31.199524 77.557505 175.343229 386.343945
2025-02-16 1.008583 3.650520 10.994767 30.741356 78.548434 181.654386 408.467525
2025-02-23 0.861486 3.286825 10.305667 29.806408 78.328791 185.369706 425.490048
2025-03-02 0.766260 3.066832 9.970655 29.724080 80.089467 193.446287 452.168606
2025-03-09 0.692097 2.899674 9.756826 29.929091 82.555254 203.242802 483.171115